ACA Reform

If you have insurance coverage through the Marketplace, the key advice right now is —

DON’T PANIC.logo@2x.png

While, to paraphrase Mark Twain, the word “congressman” is a synonym for “idiot”, it’s unlikely that we’ll see sweeping changes in the near future.

  • Congress is using a special procedure to “repeal” the Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare).  In fact, using that procedure, they can only repeal a portion of the law — the portion that involved direct Federal spending and tax penalties for individuals and businesses.
  • Many smaller hospitals are just as upset as consumes about losing Federal subsidies for healthcare.  The can’t afford returning to the burden of treating the uninsured.  Since the medical community is such a huge donor to Congress, they will want their say in hearings before Congress acts. So will insurers, the AARP and other groups.  That takes time.
  • Several analysts have speculated that there will be some kind of “bridge” legislation to keep the current system running until they can come up with a revised system.  That would be sensible.  But then again, this is Congress.

The bottom line is that we need to know what the facts are before we can figure out what is best to do.  Until the dust settles, we just don’t know.

Any replacement system will require legislation that will be subject to filibuster.  For that reason, it will require support from both parties to put it in place.  That’s simply going to take time.  I’d be modestly surprised if we actually had a replacement system before 2018, and if passed then, it wouldn’t take effect until 2019.  But we’ll see.

However, panic over the law could trigger a pull back in spending by consumers.  Another recession?  We’ll see.

By the way, if you haven’t read Mark Twain — particularly his cynical “Letters from the Earth” — you really should.  Most of what he said about people and  especially politicians is still true.  He’s just a lot more humorous in how he says it.

 

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